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英國諾定咸市政府（又稱市議會）按早前法庭命令，向《追新聞》記者披露終止與寧波姊妹城市關係的「機密」影響評估。該文件主要由在寧波設校舍的諾定咸大學於 2022 年 8 月所製備，提及預估此舉可導致大學中國學生驟減八成，校方每年損失逾 7,000 萬鎊（約 7 億港元）收入。評估續稱，兩地終止關係可使諾定咸經濟萎縮，招致逾 1 億鎊（約 10 億港元）的損失，以及裁員等經濟後果。然而，有時任工黨市議員批評，諾定咸大學企圖在評估數據裏混淆中國和國際學生，實為「狡猾（disingenuous）」。
其時適逢英國保守黨黨魁選舉，諾定咸大學則在評估稱「斷交」極可能引起大量政壇和傳媒關注，並造成重大外交後果，觸怒寧波當局，導致中國政府發出留學警示，甚至破壞旨在向中國政府問責的外交工作。市府製備的審核報告亦以附件形式附上影響評估，供工黨市議員們投票前閲覽。報告稱，諾定咸是對華最密切的其中一個英國城市，「斷交」決定可能會立即傳至北京，引起中國政府「即時和來自高層（immediate and high level）」的回應。
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大學：諾定咸被認為帶敵意 中國或發留學警示 惹經濟損失
該影響評估稱，「斷交」會導致諾定咸被中國的傳媒和社交媒體，描繪成「明顯充滿敵意」的環境，難以就學、生活和從商。評估指，其時中國和澳洲外交關係漸趨緊張，中國教育部稱澳洲對中國留學生帶敵意，其後發出留學警示，導致留學生人數按年下跌，對澳洲經濟造成重大挑戰。
評估以此為例，指中國政府對國際收生有重要影響，若諾定咸與寧波終止關係，官方指引和家長皆會避免學生到諾定咸留學。評估稱，大學預計此舉平均會流失四成中國學生，最壞估算可達八成。大學稱，這意味校方每年損失 3,700 萬鎊（約 3.7 億港元）至逾 7,000 萬鎊不等，形容影響「極為嚴重」。翻查年度報表，諾定咸大學去年收入約為 8.4 億鎊（約 84 億港元）。
至於大學以外，評估稱國際學生於 2018 至 19 年為諾定咸帶來約 4.3 億鎊（約 43 億港元）的收入，當中三分一學生來自的國家，有城市與諾定咸締結姊妹關係。評估因而推斷，「斷交」可導致諾定咸市經濟萎縮，損失逾 1 億鎊，以及零售業、服務業等各行各業數以千計的裁員，亦影響外國企業的投資意欲。
批大學圖混淆中國和國際生 時任市議員：狡猾
諾定咸市議會工黨小組於 2023 年 2 月 13 日晚間就該市是否與寧波中止姊妹城市作決定（詳見另稿）。披露的文件顯示，時任工黨市議員羅拔絲（Angharad Roberts）於早上向時任市議長梅倫（David Mellen）發內部電郵，當中提出 8 點意見。她批評，諾定咸大學企圖在影響評估混淆中國和國際學生，實為「狡猾（disingenuous）」。
她解釋，諾定咸大學校方的政策決定，導致其須倚賴從中國學生賺取的收入，反而諾定咸另一所大學諾定咸特倫特大學，並沒有面臨這些風險，仍然有蓬勃的國際生群體。而市府官員為梅倫擬備的回覆則稱，市府不就此評論，並指影響評估由大學所製備。
憂觸怒侮辱寧波當局 引英揆約翰遜説法：合作可促進中國人權
評估稱，兩市關係建基於教育合作，「斷交」是個無助促進向中國政府問責的姿態（gesture），更可能破壞相關且正在進行的外交工作。評估警告，姊妹城市協議雖然在英國不特別矚目，但對寧波市和中國人來説「相當嚴肅」，終止協議會激發廣泛國際外交後果。評估又提到，「此舉將導致寧波市企業、市民和有關當局感到極為尷尬和侮辱，並激起他們極大的憤怒」。因此，大學認為市府應儘快尋求外交部的意見。
市府製備的審核報告以附件形式附上影響評估，供工黨市議員們投票前閲覽。報告稱，諾定咸是對華最密切的其中一個英國城市，「斷交」決定等任何對姊妹城市關係的正式轉變，可能會立即傳回北京，引起中國政府「即時和來自高層」的回應。市府亦稱，這可對諾定咸這個品牌在中國構成負面影響。
諾定咸大學亦曾聯同諾定咸特倫特大學於 2022 年 6 月向市府提交聲明。該份周五披露的聲明指，英政府已經非常明確地表明，英國持份者應繼續與中國保持積極聯繫。聲明指，時任英揆約翰遜與國家主席習近平舉行恆常對話，強調應「善用這些關係解決香港管治、新疆人權，以及中國在俄烏戰爭保持中立等議題」。聲明又稱，時任英國駐華大使吳若蘭女爵士（Dame Caroline Wilson）曾於一次近期會議，向各英國大學重申政府立場。
Exclusive: Nottingham council fears £100m hit over cutting Chinese ties
Nottingham could lose £100 million a year if it ends sister-city ties with Ningbo, China according to documents The Chaser obtained after a successful legal appeal.
A court overturned decisions by both Nottingham City Council and a government watchdog that had blocked The Chaser’s Freedom of Information request for a controversial review in which Labour councillors voted behind closed doors to keep the twinning agreement.
Emails and impact assessments show councillors raised serious concerns about human rights abuses. This prompted the then council leader, Cllr David Mellen, to write a strongly worded letter to the Chinese ambassador to the UK, urging Beijing to “stop its unjustifiable actions in Xinjiang and respect the wishes of Hong Kong to remain a distinct political entity”.
However, councillors ultimately voted to keep the relationship, citing concerns that an “immediate and high-level” response from Beijing could cost Nottingham’s student-dependent economy £100 million. According to the documents, Beijing could retaliate to such an “insult” by suspending approval for students to study at the city’s universities.
The review, which campaigners criticised as “shrouded in secrecy” and conducted without consultations, came after a petition calling for an end to the twinning agreement had garnered over 1,500 signatures in June 2022. The Chaser submitted its Freedom of Information request after the Labour-run council rejected the petition nine months later.
A spokesperson for the campaign group Nottingham Stands With Hong Kong said: “We welcome the ruling. Not only did the council fail to conduct a public consultation, but they also refused to disclose the relevant details, showing a blatant lack of transparency and disregard for public opinion.”
A local councillor was also alarmed that the review contained “no representation at all” from the Hong Kong community, according to internal emails. The emails’ timestamps also reveal that Labour councillors had already made their decision before meeting petitioners for the first time.
How it started
The petition was part of a global campaign calling on Western local authorities to de-twin with Chinese cities, following a 2022 UN report suggesting China may have committed crimes against humanity against its Uyghur population in the Xinjiang province.
In the UK, campaigners from the Hong Kong community have sought to highlight China’s sweeping crackdown on the city’s press and civil society after the 2019 protests. They focus particularly on China’s alleged interference in UK politics and the imposition of an authoritarian national security law in the former British colony.
Since 2020, four councils have ended their twinning agreements with Chinese cities, most recently Newcastle and Bath and North East Somerset in November 2022. Elsewhere, cities in the U.S., Canada and Europe have followed suit.
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Nottingham ended its twinning ties with two Russian and Belarusian cities in March 2022. Campaigners say the city should take the same action with its ties to Ningbo.
‘Insult’ and ‘embarassment’
The released documents focused on an impact assessment primarily authored by the University of Nottingham, outlining the economic consequences of ending the ties.
The university’s modelling estimated that detwinning would cost it between £37 million and £80 million a year in revenue from Chinese students, with a worst-case scenario projecting an 80 percent drop in their enrolment. The assessment said the impact of such a rapid and unplanned income decline would be “extremely serious”.
In 2021 to 2022, around 4,000 Chinese students made up eight percent of the university’s population. Established in 2004, its Ningbo site made it one of only two UK universities to run a campus in China.
Urging the council to seek advice from the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, the assessment said: “(T)he decision would cause significant embarrassment, insult and generate considerable anger amongst businesses, citizens and the local authorities in Ningbo.”
Citing job losses and a drop in investment, it added this could “realistically be expected to shrink the local economy of Nottingham City by over £100m for each cohort of students reduced by the impacts by this decision”.
A University of Nottingham spokesperson said: “Across Nottingham city’s three constituencies, international students add £685m to the local economy and bring cultural benefits, which enrich our communities, while our overseas campuses harness our research power to find innovative solutions to global challenges.”
Campaigners’ criticism
Internal email timestamps reveal councillors did not meet campaigners until five days after voting on February 13, 2023. The review was conducted behind closed doors by Labour councillors, who then held political control of the council, and no public records of the process exist.
Cllr Angharad Roberts echoed campaigners’ disapproval of the review’s lack of transparency. In an email to Cllr Mellen, she wrote: “The paper says it will provide views of key stakeholders. However, the universities’ views dominate — seven pages of text directly from the universities, sections of which are reproduced multiple times almost verbatim in the main paper.”
“There is no representation at all of (the) views of the Hong Kong community in Nottingham,” she added. “The attempt by the universities to conflate Chinese students with international students more generally is disingenuous.”
A draft response prepared for Cllr Mellen by a council official said “the strong view of the Board was to focus positively on the benefits of international relationships and what they can offer in terms of education, cultural exchanges and trade.”
It said the council’s economic board was “wary of provoking a negative ‘anti-Nottingham’ response” and said it was not for the council to comment on the figures provided by the universities.
A spokesperson from Nottingham Stands With Hong Kong said the council’s position is “not acceptable”.
The group said: “By not standing up for their values, by retaining their relationship with China through this twinning agreement, it is an infiltration from a foreign country to the decision-making in our local council as well.”
Nottingham City Council declined The Chaser’s request for comment.
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